287
Estimated cost of proposed railways in South China.
British and French commercial interests in South and west China.
12
I am inclined to think that the extension of French influence by the construction of the network of railways in South China, planned by the former Governor General and endorsed by the Conseil Supérieur (see map attached hereto), is primarily responsible for the current developments. As the successful accomplishment of this scheme may ultimately seriously affect the important British interests in the region in question, a brief examination of the probabilities of its realization in the near future may not be unprofitable.
The cost of the railway from Vietry to Laokay on the Chinese frontier through mountainous country of a character similar to that in Yunnan is estimated at under 6,000l. per kilom., and of the line thence to Yunnan-fu, both of which are now under construction, at, I believe, between 8,000l. and 9,000l. per kilom., which, however, will be reduced to under 8,000l. if it be true, as I am told is the case, that a new and easier route has been recently discovered enabling a saving of 10,000,000 fr. to be effected. The sum guaranteed by Indo-China as interest on the capital employed is 3,000,000 fr., which at 3 per cent, supposes the expenditure of 100,000,000 fr.,* or about 8,700l. per kilom. Now, taking this estimated cost of the Yunnan line as the rate for the other projected lines of some 3,500 kilom., which, as this part of Yunnan has been declared to offer such physical difficulties as to render it impracticable for railways, and much of the country to be traversed by the projected lines is very easy, must be considered a high one, the total sum required for their construction would be 28,000,000l. to 30,000,000l., the interest on which at 3 per cent. would be considerably under 1,000,000l.
This sum, as I have shown, Indo-China will probably soon be—in fact, with a readjustment of expenditure, is now to a great extent—in a position to guarantee, and with the steady expansion of her foreign commerce and the general internal development that may be confidently expected, and a reserve already amounting to 30,000,000 fr., invested in gold securities, her guarantee will no doubt be considered sufficient by French capitalists even without the added guarantee of France, which, however, in view of the great benefit to home industries resulting from the supply of large quantities of railway material, would probably be given if necessary. M. Doumer's scheme is therefore, I venture to think, not a wild dream of an imaginative and ambitious statesman, but a practicable project, the realization of which is well within the range of probable events of the near future. Such being the case, a few observations on the results that are likely to ensue therefrom will perhaps not be premature.
13
The commercial interests involved in the region to be traversed by the proposed railways are rather prospective than actual, although even now they are by no means inconsiderable. The ascertainable value of foreign imports into Ssuchuan, Yünnan, Kueichow, and Kuanghsi was, in 1901, between 4,000,000l. and 5,000,000l., of which the chief items were Indian yarn, over 2,000,000l., and cotton piece goods, no doubt largely of British origin, about 500,000l. There appears to be also some trade in British and Indian goods by way of Bangkok and Zimme. With the exception of opium (mostly smuggled) the trade of Indo-China with these provinces is extremely small. Indeed, the whole trade of Indo-China with China would not appear to exceed about 4,000,000l., while that of India in yarn and opium only was valued, in 1902, at nearly 10,000,000l. If the comparison be extended to include the trade of the whole British Empire on the one side, and that of France and her Colonies on the other, the difference in favour of the former would probably be counted in tens of millions. A consideration of these facts renders the more significant the action of Indo-China, a country of some 20,000,000 inhabitants only just emerging from a state of bankruptcy and internal disorder, in taking upon herself the burden of establishing a widely extended system of railway communication with her neighbour, while India with a population fifteen times as numerous, the advantage of half a century of peace and good government behind her, and large existing and still larger prospective interests at stake, shrinks from the expense of finding and utilizing a route which would furnish the means of direct and daily intercourse between one of her richest provinces, whose trade alone is 2,000,000l. in excess of that of Indo-China, and the largest and wealthiest province of China, now separated by thousands of miles of ocean.
Possibly the undertaking would not prove at present financially a success; experts have said that it would not, but experts have also declared a railway into South Yunnan to be impracticable, and yet it is on the eve of accomplishment at a by no means ruinous cost. Railways in Siam and Tonquin, with a population far inferior in all the qualities that bring wealth and prosperity to a country, promise to yield a moderate return on the capital sunk in them, and it is difficult to believe that Ssuchuan and Yunnan do not offer at least as good prospects as those two countries. The wealth of Ssuchuan is undisputed, and Yunnan, even under present conditions, would appear to take at least 1,000,000l. worth of foreign goods, an amount that would rapidly increase with the better communication, better fiscal government, and the influx of settlers to develop its undoubted latent resources that may be expected to follow the advent of railways.
But however doubtful the commercial results may be of a railway from Burmah into China, it is certain that the political results ensuing from the absence of one will be of considerable importance. The advantages of a land frontier with good means of access to remote provinces, where the interests of other Powers exist only in the shape of goods imported by natives, and where action can be taken without provoking similar action on their part, have been well illustrated in the case of Russia in Manchuria. With the completion of the projected system of railways from Tonquin, when Yunnan-fu is brought within a day's journey of the Tonquin frontier, behind which lies a well-equipped army of 30,000 to 40,000 men, the growing influence of France in that region will become predominant, and she will occupy a position of vantage which may be used to the serious injury of important British interests.
A law has been passed authorizing the appropriation of 40,000l. (1,000,000 fr.) per annum for fifteen years for subsidies to French ships visiting Indo-China. The Shipping subsidies are arranged on a sliding scale, according to the age of the ship, beginning with 1 fr. 10 c. per ton for those from 1 to 5 years old, and gradually decreasing until they cease when the ship has reached the age of 20. The number of French officers and engineers required to be carried varies from 1/5, according to the size of the ship. The bounty is further increased by 2½ per cent. when more than half a full cargo is carried.
A grant of 25,000 dollars has been made for the digging of a canal from Kwangchouwan to Tchekam.
The improvements in the harbour at Haiphong, for which a sum of 840,000l. has been voted, as mentioned in my last Report, include a canal 7 metres deep to Along Bay, 550 metres of quays, and a graving dock 200 metres long, the whole to be finished in 1908. It is expected that the depth of water on the bar at low tide will be increased from 12–13 feet to 18–19 feet, and to 25–26 feet at high tide.
I am told that it is proposed to make Haiphong the terminus of the French mail-boats, communication with China being maintained by a separate line of steamers.
The Customs Returns for the first half of 1902 appear to show an enormous increase of trade compared with the previous year. The figures are:—
1902 (six months) 1901 (whole year) Imports £ 6,549,000 £ 5,099,000 Exports 5,028,000 6,424,000 Coast trade >(?)* 3,493,000 5,542,000 Transit trade 606,000 1,339,000Pakhoi, April 19, 1903.
(Signed)
H. A. LITTLE, Consul.
*This Table is cancelled, the totals not being made up in the same way as were those for 1901. The correct figures cannot at present be given, as the full returns are not yet published.—H. A. L.—7/5/1903.
Page 287 appears three times at top, three times at bottom.
287
Estimated cost of proposed railways in South China.
British and French commercial
west China.
12
am inclined to think primarily be the extension of French influence by the construc tion of the network of railways in South China, planned by the former Governor General and endorsed by the Conseil Superieur (see map attached hereto). As the successful accomplishment of this scheme may ultimately seriously affect the important British interests in the region in question, a brief examination of the probabilities of its realization in the near future may not be unprofitable.
The cost of the railway from Vietry to Laokay on the Chinese frontier through mountainous country of a character similar to that in. Yunnan is estimated at under 6,000l. per kilom., and of the line thence to Yunnan-fu, both of which are now under construction, at, I believe, between 8,0001. and 9,000 per kilom., which, how. ever, will be reduced to under 8,0001, if it be true, as I am told is the case, that a new and easier route has been recently discovered enabling a saving of 10,000,000 fr to be effected. The sum guaranteed by Indo-China as interest on the capital employed is 3,000,000 fr., which at 3 per cent, supposes the expenditure of 100,000,000 fr.,* or about 8,7001. per kilom. Now, taking this estimated cost of the Yunnan line as the rate for the other projected lines of some 3,500 kilom., which, as this part of Yunnan has been declared to offer such physical difficulties as to render it impracticable for railways, and much of the country to be traversed by the projected lines is very easy, must be considered a high one, the total sum required for their construction would be 28,000,000/. to 30,000,000, the interest on which at 3 per cent. would be considerably under 1,000,0001.
This sum, as I have shown, Indo-China will probably soon be-in fact, with a readjustment of expenditure, is now to a great extent-in a position to guarantee, and with the steady expansion of her foreign commerce and the general internal development that may be confidently expected, and a reserve already amounting to 30,000,000 fr., invested in gold securities, her guarantee will no doubt be considered sufficient by French capitalists even without the added guarantee of France, which, however, in view of the great benefit to home industries resulting from the supply of large quantities of railway material, would probably be given if necessary. M. Doumer's scheme is therefore, I venture to think, not a wild dream of an imaginative and ambitious statesman, but a practicable project, the realization of which is well within the range of probable events of the near future. Such being the case, a few observations on the results that are likely to ensue therefrom will perhaps not be premature.
The commercial interests involved in the region to be traversed by the proposed interests in south- railways are rather prospective than actual, although even now they are by no means inconsiderable. The ascertainable value of foreign imports into Ssuchuan, Yünnas, Kueichow, and Kuanghsi was, in 1901, between 4,000,000%, and 5,000,000/, of which the chief items were Indian yarn, over 2,000,000, and cotton piece goods, no doubt largely of British origin, about 500,000. There appears to be also some trade in British and Indian goods by way of Bangkok and Zimme. With the exception of opium (mostly smuggled) the trade of Indo-China with these provinces is extremely small. Indeed, the whole trade of Indo-China with China would not appear to exceed about 4,000,000, while that of India in yarn and opium only was valued, in 1902, at nearly 10,000,000. If the comparison be extended to include the trade of the whole British Empire on the one side, and that of France and her Colonies on the other, the difference in favour of the former would probably be counted in tens of millions. A consideration of these facts renders the more significant the action of Indo-China, a country of some 20,000,000 inhabitants only just emerging from a state of bankrupter and internal disorder, in taking upon herself the burden of establishing a widely extended system of railway communication with her neighbour, while India with a population fifteen times as numerous, the advantage of half a century of peace and good government behind her, and large existing and still larger prospective interests at stake, shrinks from the expense of finding and utilizing a route which would furnish the means of direct and daily intercourse between one of her richest provinces, whose trade alone is 2,000,000l. in excess of that of Indo-China, and the largest and wealthiest province of China, now separated by thousands of miles of ocean.
Possibly the undertaking would not prove at present financially a success; experts have said that it would not, but experts have also declared a railway into South Yunnan to be impracticable, and yet it is on the eve of accomplishment at a by no means ruinous cost. Railways in Siam and Tonquin, with a population far inferior in all the qualities that bring wealth and prosperity to a country, promise to yield a
* One estimate puts the cost at 70,000,000 fr,
13
moderate return on the capital sunk in them, and it is difficult to believe that Ssuchuan and Yunnan do not offer at least as good prospects as those two countries. The wealth of Ssuchuan is undisputed, and Yunnan, even under present conditions, would appear to take at least 1,000,0001. worth of foreign goods, an amount that would rapidly increase with the better communication, better fiscal government, and the influx of
advent of railways. settlers to develop its undoubted latent resources that may be expected to follow the
But however doubtful the commercial results may be of a railway from Burmah Commercial and into China, it is certain that the political results ensuing from the absence of one will political results of be of considerable importance. The advantages of a land frontier with good means of proposed railways. access to remote provinces, where the interests of other Powers exist only in the shape of goods imported by natives, and where action can be taken without provoking similar action on their part, have been well illustrated in the case of Russia in Manchuria. With the completion of the projected system of railways from Tonquin When Yunnan-fu is brought within a day's journey of the Tonquin frontier, behind the position of France in the south will be very similar to that of Russia in the north.
which lies a well-equipped army of 30,000 to 40,000 men, the growing influence of France in that region will become predominant, and she will occupy a position of vantage which may be used to the serious injury of important British interests.
A law has been passed authorizing the appropriation of 40,0001. (1,000,009 fr.) Miscellaneous. per annum for fifteen years for subsidies to French ships visiting Indo-China, The Shipping subsides. bounties are arranged on a sliding scale, according to the age of the ship, beginning with 1 fr. 10 c. per ton for those from 1 to 5 years old, and gradually decreasing until they cease when the the ship has reached the age of 20. The number of French officers and engineers required to be carried varies from 1-5, according to the size of the ship. The bounty is further increased by 21 per cent. when more than half a full cargo is carried.
A grant of 25,000 dollars has been made for the digging of a canal from Grant for canal at Kwangchouwan to Tchekam.
Kwangchouwan.
The improvements in the harbour at Haiphong, for which a sum of 840,0001. has Improvements in been voted, as mentioned in my last Report, include a canal 7 metres deep to Along Haiphong barbour. Bay, 550 metres of quays, and a graving dock 200 metres long, the whole to be finished in 1908. It is expected that the depth of water on the bar at low tide will be increased from 12-13 feet to 18-19 feet, and to 25-26 feet at high tide.
I am told that it is proposed to make Haiphong the terminus of the French mail- Proposal to make boats, communication with China being maintained by a separate line of steamers.
Haiphong terminus of French mail service.
The Customs Returns for the first half of 1902 appear to show an enormous Trade in 1902. increase of trade compared with the previous year. The figures are :—-
Imports Exports Coast trade Transit trade
Pakhoi, April 19, 1903.
::::
::::
1902 (six months).
1901 (whole year).
£ 6,549,000 5,028,000
>(?)* 3,493,000
606,000 J
£
5,099,000
6,424,000
5,542,000
1,339,000
(Signed)
H. A. LITTLE, Consul.
*This Table is cancelled, the totals not being made up in the same way as were those for 1901. The correct figures cannot at present be given, as the full returns are not yet published.-H. A. L-7/5/1903.
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